Archive for August, 2007

The story-telling economist

Saturday, August 11th, 2007

Economist Ariel Rubinstein, writing on the role and meaning of models in Economics:

“As economic theorists, we organize our thoughts using what we call models. The word  “model” sounds more scientific than  “fable” or “fairy tale” although I do not see much difference between them. The author of a fable draws a parallel to a situation in real life. He has some moral he wishes to impart to the reader. The fable is an imaginary situation that is somewhere between fantasy and reality. Any fable can be dismissed as being unrealistic or simplistic, but this is also the fable’s advantage. Being something between fantasy and reality, a fable is free of extraneous details and annoying diversions. In this unencumbered state, we can clearly discern what cannot always be seen in the real world. On our return to reality, we are in possession of some sound advice or a relevant argument that can be used in the real world.

We do exactly the same thing in economic theory. A good model in economic theory, like a good fable, identifies a number of themes and elucidates them. We perform thought exercises that are only loosely connected to reality and that have been stripped of most of their real-life characteristics. However, in a good model, as in a good fable, something significant remains.”

Page 881 of  A. Rubinstein [2006]: Dilemmas of an economist theorist. Econometrica, 74 (4): 865-883.

Labeling those who think differently as irrational

Thursday, August 2nd, 2007

The New Yorker magazine recently carried a review by Louis Menand of a book by an economist, Bryan Caplan, “The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies” (2006), a book which argues that most people are acting “irrationally” when it comes to certain questions of public policy.  

There is a nice response to Caplan in a letter to the magazine by Christopher and Miranda Meyer of Lexington, Mass:

“Louis Menand neatly refutes Bryan Caplan’s argument that greater levels of voter participation are harmful, but he could have gone farther (Books, July 9th and 16th).  Traditional economists insist that the failure of behavior to conform to their models is the fault of individuals, and that actions whose benefits escape the economic calculus are “irrational”.  But understanding why people behave as they do teaches us more than declaring them wrong does.  The thinking of most economists is limited by what they choose to measure – tangible economic value.  They set about maximizing value, commonly expressed as gross domestic product, by optimizing resource allocation.  Economists call this the “science of scarcity” but what if GDP is not scarce?  Menand suggests that people value choice, in addition to goods and services.   Perhaps justice, stability, diversity, and other social intangibles are, like choice, very scarce indeed, and highly valued. South Africans can feel the intangible return on their investment in Truth and Reconciliation, even if economists value only the costs.  People vote because they feel that democracy plays a role in delivering these “uneconomic” valuables.”

Algo commodity trading

Wednesday, August 1st, 2007

According to a report in the FT, UBS is planning to launch a new automated trading fund for [tag]commodities[/tag].

“The UBS Commodities Portfolio Algorithmic Strategy System aims to fill a gap in the market between the long-only passive indices, such as the popular S&P GSCI – which has about $70bn tracking it – and services provided by commodities trading advisers and hedge funds.Peter Ghavami, UBS head of commodities, said: “As familiarity with the commodities asset class grows, an increasing number of investors are recognizing the value of taking a more active approach.”

The UBS Comm-PASS consists of a basket of strategies on 19 commodities future markets, with a 51 per cent exposure to energy.

The system, according to the bank, picks up on the momentum in the commodity markets and exploits it through automated long and short strategies.

. . .

Traditional commodities vehicles bet only on higher prices and usually roll over their positions every month, selling the front-month contract and buying the following contract.

The strategy results in losses when prices fall from one month to the next or during a bear market.

Sharp losses that resulted from this type of investment in late 2005 and in 2006 have prompted some institutional investors to consider more complex commodity investment strategies.”