Archive for March, 2008

The epidemiology of stock markets

Saturday, March 29th, 2008

As UK readers will probably know, last week [tag]rumours[/tag] spread that Halifax Bank of Scotland ([tag]HBOS[/tag]) would soon follow Northern Rock and Bear Stearns into ruination, and the shares of HBOS fell dramatically.   Not only were these rumous false, but both the [tag]Bank of England[/tag] and the British securities regulator, the [tag]Financial Services Agency[/tag] (FSA), strongly denounced them. The FSA has begun an enquiry into whether there was deliberate share price manipulation, and if so, by whom.  Walking this particular cat back may be quite difficult if the rumour mongers covered their tracks at the time. 

“Shares in the UK bank plunged as much as 17 per cent last Wednesday when false rumours spread that it had sought emergency funding from the Bank of England. HBOS and the UK central bank categorically denied the rumours and the FSA launched an inquiry into potential market manipulation.

HBOS has been piecing together its comprehensive version of the share price movements to help uncover what caused the mass sell-off of its stock.

Its report is expected to provide information on the nature of the rumours that triggered the share price fall, where they came from and a breakdown of when they occurred.”

Because of BSE (mad-cow disease), foot-and-mouth disease, and bird flu, Britain’s farmers are now required to record every movement of every cow and every chicken between their farms, and a national database has been established to collect and analyze this data (held at the National Centre for Zoonosis Research). How soon before the FSA requires share traders to register all their social interactions and communications, and starts data-mining these to match information [tag]diffusion[/tag] patterns with share trades and price movements?

When the CAT tournament met the Japanese ambassador

Wednesday, March 26th, 2008

As those of you who were in Vancouver for the 2007 [tag]CAT Tournament[/tag] no doubt remember, the trophies for the winners, and the consolation prizes for the losers, featured [tag]Doraemon[/tag], the cartoon “robot cat of the future”:

Doraemon

We figured that there was no better cause in which to enlist a cartoon character who comes from the 22nd century and has a four-dimensional pocket in his tummy, and that this would be a high point in the history of Doraemon.

Well, we were wrong.

It turns out that the Japanese government have raised Doraemon to even greater heights. They have appointed Doraemon as an “animation ambassador”. In an official ceremony, the Japanese foreign minister declared:

Doraemon, I hope you will travel around the world as an [tag]anime[/tag] ambassador and deepen people’s understanding of Japan so they will become our friends.

With that I think we have to abandon our plans to use Hello Kitty for this year’s prizes. If Doraemon is good enough for the Japanese government, he is good enough for CAT.

Implications of the FCC spectrum auction: one view

Sunday, March 23rd, 2008

Further to our post about the [tag]FCC[/tag] [tag]Spectrum auctions[/tag], legal scholar Susan Crawford has a commentary on the implications of the auction outcome for competition in the US broadband market.  Essentially, she argues that the failure of new, non-telco entrants to gain spectrum may delay the rise of innovative [tag]wireless broadband[/tag] services because it entrenches the walled-gardens model of traditional [tag]telecommunications[/tag] networks, rather than the open-access model of the Internet.  

Now we know the winner (or something like it)

Friday, March 21st, 2008

So after I wrote “there’s no indication of when we’ll find out who the [tag]FCC[/tag] [tag]spectrum auction[/tag] winners] are”, some information about the winning bidders has been announced. That should teach me not to trust the New York Times, but it is probably way too late for that to happen.

Anyhow, the highlights of the results according to a press release on the FCC site are that:

  • “[tag]Verizon[/tag] [tag]wireless[/tag] was the major winner in the C block”;
  • “A winner other than the nationwide incumbent won a license in every market”; and
  • “[tag]Frontier Wireless[/tag] LLC (Echostar) … won 168 licenses in the E block to establish a near nationwide footprint”.

Quotes taken from the 20th March “Statement by Chairman Martin”.

You can find the Times’ take on it here.

Latest FCC spectrum auction closes

Thursday, March 20th, 2008

Bidding in the [tag]FCC[/tag] [tag]auction[/tag] for the 700 MHz band finally ended on Tuesday.

According to the NY Times paged linked above, the winning bids came to a cool 19,592,420,000. No word yet on the winning bidders, and apparently there’s no indication of when we’ll find out who they are.

The Times has a longer article as well, but it looks like you need to have an account to read it.

Live feeds from the dead

Tuesday, March 18th, 2008

The Financial Times reports that real-time data on human deaths is being combined with official [tag]mortality statistics[/tag] in Germany to improve the risk assessments of insurance companies and pension funds.   Perhaps the FT sub-editors were on a coffee break when this opening sentence crossed their desk prior to publication:

“Deutsche Börse, the German stock exchange, has set up [tag]live feeds[/tag] from undertakers to find out what age people are when they die.” 

Market solutions in healthcare

Wednesday, March 12th, 2008

The latest issue of The New Yorker has a cartoon by Barbara Smaller, which for copyright reasons we link to, rather than reproduce.

CAT Tournament update

Wednesday, March 12th, 2008

We have decided preliminary dates for the [tag]TAC[/tag] [tag]Market Design[/tag] or [tag]CAT Tournament[/tag] Trials:  these will take place during the week of 9 – 13 June 2008.   Further details will follow nearer the time.  I have updated the CAT Tournament page.